I just watched Deadpool last night and I think the movie has nailed the character 100%. It inspired me to write this post as I see Deadpool being developed into a serious franchise in the years to come. I have mentioned before that the effect of movie hype on comic prices will be reduced. However, that does not apply to popular characters like these 2 who have real fans and supporters buying their comics.
Note: you can check out my previous Deadpool key issues. To my surprise, the Hit Monkey #1 really became a $15 book lol.
Predictions for the X men movie universe
With what I have seen, I believe Deadpool can become the anchor for the next phase for the X Universe, similar to how Wolverine did it in the past. The only difference is that Deadpool will open up more types of movie genres beyond just the superhero type, which is what the Wolverine and past X Men movies have been about. This direction will be invigorating to the movie crowd who might get bored with tradition comic book movies. For example, I see this Deadpool movie as a comedy, that is done in a superhero world. It is a great direction that no CSM has tried before.
With Deadpool as the center, then it is easy to see which books will get hot. Basically, it will be anything that has Deadpool in it. Everything else is not going to matter as much. That will be the key to my Deadpool comic investing strategy.
New Mutants #87
Now, let’s talk the elephant in the room first. This, once big key, has seen some strong interest in these few days. Fortunately, I have bought mine when I talk about Cable key issues in 2014. The question now is how much will this book go? To help us, I have compared 3 books below to show what is possible.
|CGC 9.8||USD 420||USD 800||USD 1,700|
|CGC 9.6||USD 220||USD 400||USD 800|
|CGC 9.4||USD 120||USD 350||USD 650|
BA #12 is there to set the absolute ceiling. Both NM #98 and # 87 has no chance to reach this level due to the supply difference as can seen from the Census information. This will give you some realistic expectation in case there are some who wonders if NM #98 can be a 2k book.
Now, the true comparison is between #98 and #87. Popularity wise, Deadpool wins hands down. The tricky situation then is to access how the lower supply of New Mutants #87 can offset this popularity gap. I don’t have the exact formula down but you can play with assumptions and see how much growth is left in #87 relative to #98’s prices.
At current pricing with no promotional movie materials or trailers, #87 is already half the value of #98, which means the demand is there. Once the hype train starts, it is not difficult to imagine it getting a 20-40% increase, which means a price range of $480 to $560. This is a conservative estimation but shows you can still make money if you buy now.
On a side note, it is interesting to note the pricing gaps between the 3 levels of grading. 9.8 is always about twice of 9.6 but the difference between 9.4 and 9.6 is very often not that much. Look at NM #98. Prices between 9.4 and 9.6 is only $50!
Currently, for NM #87, prices for 9.6 are starting to move into the $250 mark. Using the above observation, we should see 9.8 hitting $500 pretty soon, probably by end of next week.
Cable and Deadpool #1
This was recommended by Gary K and I thank him for it. With Cable being confirmed in the sequel, fans will be looking for this book due to it being the first Cable and Deadpool series. If Cable headlines the movie like how Wasp did it in “Antman and Wasp”, then there will be a major take up. Print run for this book is around 40k so it doesn’t have those huge copper age runs. Currently prices are around USD30 but I predict it can easily be a USD60 book, depending on how successfully they translate Cable onto the screen.
Uncanny Xforce #1
There will also probably be an X force movie starring Deadpool. If this comes to pass, the book to get is Uncanny X Force #1, instead of New Mutants #100 because this version of the team has Deadpool in it.
You can see parallels between this and the New 52 Suicide Squad #1. The SS #1 is now more pricey than Legends #3 even though the latter is suppose to be the first appearance of the modern team. Reason: no Harley. That will also happen with Deadpool. Uncanny XForce #1 will be more valuable because it is the version of the team with Deadpool in it. Prior versions of the team without him will be less desirable.
Unfortunately, Uncanny X force #1 is a tricky beast to invest because there are 6 covers with a blank as well as a 2nd print. Among these, which one will the cream of the cream? My choice is one of the following:
The Rob Liefled Variant
Based on current sales, this is the most pricey of the bunch. It seems to be a 1:50 variant and is drawn by Rob Liefeld. Say what you may have the man’s art but he has fans and they are willing to pay $150 for this book. It may seem high but if the x force movie comes to pass, $150 is still affordable especially when you bench mark against other modern variants that have no significance at all.
This looks like the regular cover except for the silver logo. It is a retailer incentive so I think the numbers are pretty low as well. Fan seems to love such variants, maybe due to the Valiant influence as the 90s saw the gold logos becoming quite the collectible. It is currently available for around USD50-60 so it is still within affordable range.
Deadpool vs X Force #1 Variant
Call it the Campbell effect but many of his covers, especially those with low print numbers are reaching mind blowing prices. They make buying NM#98 seems like a piece of cake LOL. Don’t believe me? Check the prices on issues like the ASM 678 Venom variant or the Wolverine #1 Deadpool variant.
This book is currently on that path. Prices in recent weeks have literally almost double and I see no slowing down. That being said, I must warn everyone that variant investing is like rolling a dice. You never know which ones will hold the value and which ones will be money down the toilet.
In terms of print numbers, the regular version has sold about 54k and this variant is a 1:25.
Full disclosure: I have copies of this book as I liked the cover but even then, I am hesistant to say this will be few hundred dollars in the years to come.