New Mutants 87 9.8 vs Captain Marvel 17, 2nd print

Last Updated on

There is a lively debate going on now in the CMSMT community about which of these 2 books are worth spending your dollars. I have a lot of say so rather than squeezing my thoughts into a few lines of comments, here is a full blown in depth look at the 2 issue.

nm87 vs captain marvel 17

(Disclaimer: I have multiple copies of both books so if any of them takes off, I win LOL. In fact, here are my articles on recommending you to buy undervalued Cable issues as well as Captain Marvel #17, 2nd print when they are still at cover price)

Leave emotions aside

One of the most difficult thing about comic book investing is separating your love for a character with your investment analysis. That tends to cloud your investing judgement and leads you to places where you aren’t suppose to be. You may love a book because you grew up with it but that doesn’t mean it is the best value for money book to buy. A lot of it still comes from analyzing demand and supply factors which is what this article and this blog is all what.

If you already decided that New Mutants #87 is the book to own because you love Cable, please don’t continue any further. You are buying for a different reason and all the numbers I am going to throw at all wouldn’t matter squat.

Supply factors

Print run

In terms of sheer supply, there is no arguments. CM #17 wins hands down. If you don’t agree, you are simply wrong. Sorry.

To prove my point, here are the numbers, as bright as day.

IssueNew Mutants #87
Captain Marvel #17
Print run182,000Less than 5000
9.892230
9.697215
9.46137

Note: the print run for CM #17 is estimated. The book was published on Dec 2013 and did not even break into the top 439 sale chart.  Based on this, we can assume its print run is lower than the #439 book for that month, which is Honey West & T.H.E. Cat #1 at 1,304 copies. This estimation is in line with Ebay listings. There is never more than 10 listings at any one time given how high this book is selling. If the high price happen to a book with a moderate print run, the listing will already be flooded.

With such a low print run, even if 100% of the books were sent for CGC submission, there will be no more than 700 copies of 9.8 and 9.6 based on current ratio. This number is still lower than the 922 copies of NM #87 in 9.8.

However, we all know this will not happen. On average, only 1-5% of the total books are slabbed. Even for New Mutants #98, which is one of the most slabbed books, only 8k copies were submitted for CGC grading, out of a universe of 220k copies. That is only 3%! So, I don’t expect CM #17 to even reach 700 copies in 9.8 and 9.6. Maybe 150-250 and that is about it.

Less high grade of NM #87 due to attrition?

A related point is the argument that NM #87 is a 25 year book and attrition will lead to less high grade copies being readily available. While I don’t disagree 100%, I think the extend of the attrition has been over estimated.

New Mutants #87 was never an unknown book even in the 90s. It got hot pretty quickly after publication and entered into the Wizards’ Top 10 hot list. This means that no comic collector will look at this book and think it is worthless.

On the contrary, collectors will bag and board this book regardless of its condition because they know it is worth something. So, the potential for high grade copies is still high for this issue, which adds to the over supply problem, relative to CM #17.

Raw copies availability

One supply factor that is seldom discussed is the impact of raw copies on the prices of high graded copies. When you have as much raw copies as NM #87, demand is being splintered into different segments.

Some are contended with just a raw VF while others might like only 9.8s. Hence, if a collector wants a copy of this book, he can choose the right price and condition for this budget.

Such segmentation is less pronounced for CM #17 because of the sheer limited number of copies. A collector who doesn’t mind a raw issue of the book might find himself with no or limited options to buy.

As a result, he is forced into the same category for folks who wants only graded copies. This bundling of demand creates strong price pressure on CM #17 graded copies and that will lead to greater price increases.

This is basic economics but one that is very important to our understanding of how the availability of raw copies can help or distract the prices of graded ones.

Demand factors

Demand is where things can get really tricky. A low print run book means nothing if there is zero demand and vice versa. A high print run book can still be worth a lot of money if demand is overwhelming like Hulk #181, NM #98 and even BA #12.

So let’s pull in some data to proxy for demand since we can’t really measure it objectively.

Monthly sales

IssueCable and X Force
Ms Marvel
1st issue90,00050,000
Last issue28,00032,000
Decline67%36%

For Cable fans, you might be shocked to know that the last Cable series had a decline of 67% in sales from issue one to the last. You might argue that not all Cable fans will buy his book which is true but then again, are they real fans in this case?

In comparison, Ms Marvel had only a 36% decline from its first issue to the one published in June 2015 (no further data as of this writing). Remember, this is a brand new character with no established fan base. At the end of the day, Ms Marvel outsold Cable, as simple as that.

Longevity of Ms Marvel

The longevity is certainly room for worry. After all, May Parker was hot once and look where she is now. In this aspect, I do not disagree. However, I am confident that within the next 3 years, Kamala Khan will still be relevant and in this aspect, CM #17 will be the better book to own in this period.

If your investment horizon is 10 years and beyond, then this issue might be an important one. However, if you are looking to cash out on a shorter timer period, rest assure that KK is not going away anyway soon.

Conclusion

The best way to gauge both demand and supply factors are ebay prices and currently, CM #17 is leading. I believe supply is a big factor in this case and any movie announcements that spike demand will drives prices on the shorter supply book at a much faster rate.  In my mind, NM #87 can be the next NM #98 while CM #17 can be the next Batman Adventures #12. Nuff said!

Check out CM #17’s ebay listing here.

Check out NM #87’s ebay listings here

8 thoughts on “New Mutants 87 9.8 vs Captain Marvel 17, 2nd print

  1. not sure I agree in the Decline part.

    you can´t compare first/last issue.
    you should atleast also compare how many numbers are in the run and how long a period.

    eg. it makes no sense to take Spidermans first issue and compare it with issue 700, as it´s clearely not the same people buying those (from new)

    so you want to compare issue 1, 10, 20, 50… .or what ever numbers to see a trend and how fast it goes Down.

    you might even want to compare every of the first issues, to see if people bought #1 for a spec reason.
    eg. if # has 90.000 sales but issue #2 only have 60.000. and then the decline is just a few % from there on.

    or if issue #2 had 85, issue 3 80.. etc.

    but otherwise some very good points in here

    Nic

    1. No problem Nic. I actually did my homework before the posting. They all had similar print run.

      Since you want to be exact, here are the number of #16 of Cable and the X-force: 28,564
      Not much difference from the last issue so my conclusions still stands.

      Thanks for the comment 🙂

  2. Mr. Early Retirement,

    You were spot on with your write up both here and on your first CM write up. I just saw the last CM 17 2nd print 9.8 sold for $850 on ebay last week. That is a 8% gain from the previous week I wish my 401k would do that:). The next one is $980 in line (which the seller raised last week from $880 to be more in line with the others that are at posted around $1,000).

    If there is only going to be 150 to 250 of the CM 17 2nd Print graded and if 70% of those are 9.6 to 9.8 rating you have a maximum of 175 comics with a 9.6+ grading. If half of those are 9.8, you have a total of 86 total comics with a 9.8 rating. That is 20 years from now. CBCS and CGC are currently running at around 100 – 120 now for rated books with about 70% of them coming in 9.6 or better.

    All the research I have done points to total issues printed coming in at about 1,000 issues including a few insiders pointing to the same conclusion.

    The only thing that will kill this run is a horrible downturn in the character. With Kahn headed to the New Avengers and her strong fan base, and all the speculation of a movie appearance, I am guessing the odds would be lower than 10% unless someone at Disney/Marvel decides to pull a Wolverine on her and given today’s political climate at Disney that is simply not going to happen. Go Girl Power!

    If only I could pull together enough cash to corner this market…

    Everything you have written here and in your first post appears to be spot on. Excellent job and thank you for your extensive research.

  3. This is the first time I’ve seen these two issues actually compared to each other. I think it’s rather silly as they are totally different animals. These books have totally different fan bases . One is gaining to be in a movie (Cable) the other is not and I have not heard any rumors of her showing up in one. Cable is a well established character much more so than the new Ms Marvel. She is doing well but to say she will be relevant in 10 years? This is your opinion and that statement is wildly based on speculation. Any popular modern character 1st appearance with a super low print run will have immediate value. There are rare variants that are not even keys that are. This means nothing for the long run. Reality is? Ms. Marvel for the flip. Cable for a more stable long term investment. Cable doesn’t need a print run of 1,000 to be highly sought after lol. If you want to invest in a “Ms. Marvel” invest in the original Carol Danvers. That’s a character with staying power in 10 years. Modern collectors have no clue.

    1. It is ok to state your point Jason but your tone sucks.

      Your kind of investment thesis is the kind that I am trying to avoid. No basis for anything except your own perspective.

      You have ignored all info on supply and have not provided any solid facts on the demand for Cable except that he will be in a movie.

      I bet you probably didn’t even try to read through everything I wrote above.

      Wait and see Jason. Ms Marvel is still young and her media potential is too great to be ignore. When that time comes, you will see how a limited supply book will perform. Don’t compare this book with other modern day variants. They are different in their keyness.

  4. Well after looking at this post 3 years after you printed it, I will say you are spot on. 200 9.8 and 9.6s rated by cgc.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Releated

Geoff Johns Characters to Speculate On

Last Updated on July 8, 2020 Geoff Johns characters are a treasure trove of comics to speculate on. He was the Chief Creative Director while in DC and now runs his production company called Mad Ghost Productions. The focus on his company is to produce films and television shows based on DC characters. Guess which […]

Comic Book Speculation Chat Summary #2

Last Updated on July 7, 2020 I didn’t expect to do one so soon but man, these Mewe guys just love to chat! If I don’t write some of it down now, even I will get lost. If you need a recap on the categories of information being summarized, read this. 1. Comics Heating Up […]