Comic Book Speculation #10 – Swordsman Key Comic
Today’s article takes a look at a character that is very likely to make an appearance in the Hawkeye TV show: Swordsman. According to Clint Barton’s origin, Swordsman is his mentor and will likely turn up as a villain in the TV show.
Being a villain, this will probably be a short term speculative issue. Be sure to sell it if it starts to see some heat. You will not want to be the last person holding the hot potato.
Avengers #19
Date of Publication: 1965
Sale number: 269,000
Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of Swordsman
Recently, Swordsman also turned up in the Avengers comic as part of the Empyre event. He even had this own one shot as part of this event. This might indicate that he might be making a comeback. Nevertheless, he is still not a fan favorite character so speculate accordingly.
Despite not being a particularly strong character, there is still good returns to be made.
Lets take a look at some comparative comics that can let us see how much potential profits are there.
In this case, I am comparing Avengers #43 and #19 because:
- Same series: have similar print run
- Both issues have great first character appearance covers
- Both characters are not the main characters, although one is supporting while the other is a villain. Nevertheless, the Swordsman has made 84 comic appearances while the Red Guardian has only 24. In this case, I would say the Swordsman is a more prominent character than Red Guardian.
| 6.0 CGC census | Price of 6.0 | 8.0 CGC census | Price of 8.0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers #19 (1965) | 31 | USD 120 | 50 | USD 220 |
| Avengers #43 (1967) | 36 | USD 120 | 40 | USD 300 |
| Percentage gain | 0% | 40% | ||
Looking at the pricing for the above grades, it seems that the opportunity lies in the 8.0 grade. However, the return potential is not that great as the difference is only 40%. That is pretty low returns when it comes to comics investing.
Instead of graded, lets take a look at the raw copies
| Price of vg | Price of fine | Price of very fine | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers #19 (1965) | USD 30 | USD 50 | USD 90 |
| Avengers #43 (1967) | USD 60 | USD 100 | USD 250 |
| Percentage gain | 100% | 100% | 150% |
The raw copies of Avengers #19 presents a much better investment opportunity in terms of higher percentage gains and lower cost. As you can see in the above table, the potential is at least 100% across all the different grades. Best of all, investing in any grades will yield you similar percentage gains.
The best grade is terms of best ROI would be VF under $100. I would be buying such condition copies if I came across them.
A related villain to speculate on is Trickshot, Clint Barton’s brother. He first appearance in Avengers #64, which is a very cheap book to speculate on.
Avengers #64
Date of Publication: 1969
Sale number: 239,986
Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of
Trickshot is also another character who is very likely to turn up in the Hawkseye TV shot. In fact, he is also under the mentorshop of the Swordsman so both characters have some interaction during their earlier days in comics.
Comparing these 2 villain related speculation, I would choose Avengers #19 over #64 because of the following reasons:
- Supply: Avengers #19 is clearly the earlier book and has lower availability than #64.
- Comic appearance: Swordsman has made more comic appearances than Trickshot. He was even part of the Avengers team for a short while.
Conclusion
Villain speculation is not my favourite kind of speculation. However, when the return potential is as obvious as this, I will take a punt and cash out when the comic hits my target price.
Another advantage of such books is that it will be easy to sell as you have no attachment to the book, relative to heroes’ first appearance.
