Comic Book Speculation Chat Summary #1

This series summarizes the information that was produced during our daily lively chat sessions in the CBSMT Mewe community. Most of the time, the info is lost once the chat sessions are over, which is a pity since there are a lot of great stuff within.

Some members might also find the chats confusing and annoying and so will avoid them together. Hopefully this summary will let every member be on the same page, regardless of whether they participate in chats.

Types of information

I categorize the information from the chats into 4 main categories:

  • Heating up: what books have been seeing price increases. This is from members’ individual monitoring of Ebay sales results
  • Comic book speculation picks: this is about books that members are recommending that can be good speculation picks.
  • Tips and tricks: Outside of comic books, the chat is also filled with other relevant useful tips such as Ebay selling, grading, places to buy comics, etc.
  • Others: This is for all the random stuff happening.

1. Comics heating up

First of all, this is not a comprehensive study of all possible sales, like what I did for newsstand and other top 10 charts. It is based on what members are reporting so it can be a bit random.

However, that randomness is actually part of the fun as you never know what books might be heating up without your awareness.

These are some of the books mentioned. They are not arranged in way of value, but by the order of when they are mentioned in the chats.

Champions Vol 2, #19

When I first wrote about them, they were plenty copies in the $10 range. Looks like these have been wipe out.

In this case, I think my blog has something to do with it, although it was not my intention.

FYI, I owned 0 copies. Anybody kind enough to sell me a set for cheap lol?

Thor #168

Our own “I bought every bronze age key for 50 cents” Smick mentioned that Thor #168 was selling well for him.

He claimed to be the biggest seller of this book on ebay (to be verified of course lol)

This book has indeed increased its price steadily over the past year.

Invincible Iron Man #7 3rd print

I mentioned this book in my ‘2nd print to watch’ article and it seems to be heating up.

#9 is also mentioned to be heating up.

This continues the current trend of moderns seeming super high interest, leading to spikes in prices across the board for many Modern keys.

FYI, Riri is scored a Gem in my PSM model so it is worth to see what other Gem books are still cheap.

Captain America #272

Chris Ferreira mentioned that this book is disappearing online. The reason is due to rumors of Vermin appearing in the Kraven’s movie.

I have not keep track of this book as my impression that the Kraven movie has been put on hold due to Marvel wanting to use the Sinister Six in MCU.

Static #1

Andy Dabbs mentioned that Static #1 was selling well and I can confirmed it.

One reason is news that characters from Milestone comics will be published by end of the year after resolving the legal disputes.

Another could be the current demand for strong black characters such as Static.

Star Wars #42

Everyone knows this book is selling well. What was discussed in the chats is whether this book can hold the value.

Smick thinks it is a long term hold while Ross feels that only 9.8 are safe, especially if the character do not appear in the Mandalorian, season 2. Might be a good time to sell.

Amazing Spider-Man Vol 3, #4

Dabears4 has been updating the chat with this book’s pricing.

Specifically, the prices of raw and 9.8 of the variant has been shooting up. If this trend continues, we could be looking at another big riser in the coming months.

The rise of Silk is in line with all Spider Man related books feeling the effects of Ultimate Fallout #4.

My prediction for the next hot book? Edge of Spider-verse #5

Free Comic Book Day 2011 Clone Wars

This book features the first appearance of Darth Maul’s brother, Savage Opress

This book was initially was not discussed until I asked Ross about this awesome cover. Turns out it has been selling well for quite some time now.

As I try to search for it, it seems difficult to find as well.

2. Comic book speculation

Below is a list of books that were mentioned as books to speculate.

Rogue One Adaption #1

Date of Publication: 2017
Sale number: 64,518

Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of K-2SO

There was a couple of first appearances in this book but Ross pointed out K-2SO as the one to watch.

He is going to do a video on why he think K-2SO will be the breakout character so keep an eye out for it.

 

Moon Girl #17

Date of Publication: 2017
Sale number: 8,273

Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of Doom’s Head

2. Low print run

It seems there is a lot of love for this little guy. There was a bit of debate of which issue is Doom’s Head first appearance but was finalized on #17.

This is the issue where the head was severed from the body and become the character that our members love.

 

Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi – Force Storm #1

Date of Publication: 2012
Sale number: 18,797

Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of a number of characters including Trill and Tau

2. Low print run

Paul Nicholls has been vocal about this book although I can’t seem to find his exact reasons. These books are actually on my to buy list as well due to the excellent character design as well as strong storylines.

 

Kanan #12

Date of Publication: 2016
Sale number: 36,649

Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of Rae Sloane and the Grand Inquisitor.

This pick was from Ross, who says this is currently the most undervalued Star Wars book. Ross is our resident expert for all things Star Wars so I trust what he says.

The only problem is I can’t any cheap copies online anymore lol

 

Episode II Attack of the Clones #1

Date of Publication: 2002
Sale number: 40,211

Key strengths of this book
1. First appearance of Barriss Offee

Honestly speaking, I have no idea who Barriss Offee is before Ross brought her up. I read the wiki and she seems to have quite a long history within the Star Wars stories.

There are a couple of covers but Ross recommended the newsstand versions.

 

3. Tips and tricks

Here are some interesting information being shared

3.1 Print runs of second print

Figuring out the sales number for second or later printing has always been fussy. This is because most publishers did not clearly spell out this information in their sales numbers.

Initially, we thought that any second printing will need to be over 5,000 to be reported. Any numbers less than that will likely be reorders for the first print.

However, in the chats, the print run for Champions #19 2nd print was brought out and discussed. Specifically, the following are the sales numbers for this issue:

  • April (2018) – 17,922
  • June (2018) – 1,516
  • July (2018) – 1,078

From the above, there were 3 separate entries for the same book, without any information saying which is for which.

Initially, we thought that these might be reorder numbers for the first print. However some members like Ross and Andy questioned that assumption due to the long gaps in between the months.

In the end, I asked James from comichron.com for clarification and this is what he said:

James from Comichron

Diamond’s chart entries do not distinguish between printings, so first printings could be included if any were left at Diamond. However, that seems less likely here, as there is so much time between the first and second printing, which came out on June 27. It’s a safe bet those later orders represent the second printing.

That’s a very clear-cut example with an answer that is likely correct, and I will probably use it when I do my Frequently Asked Questions page about reorders and reprints. There are many, many cases where it is not so obvious what is what.

Due to this, we now know that some of the numbers lower than 5,000 can indeed be 2nd printing, although we still need to exercise caution in our interpretation. If the gap between the first and second sales entries is longer than 1 month, this conclusion is more likely to hold.

3.2 Always check the inside of your books

Ross has an unfortunate thing happen to his Marvel Spotlight #12 book. Specifically, somebody had filled up one of the survey forms inside the book as shown below.

So, please check the interiors of your books, especially if they are older books. I have no idea how CGC will grade this but Ross said he is expecting a 6.0 or below grade.

3.3 Youtube views of character makeup tutorials as a proxy for demand?

One interesting idea being bought out by Ross was using Youtube viewership on character makeup to estimate character popularity.

This kind of thinking is similar to using Cosplay in cons to see which characters are picking up fans. Since makeup is an important part of Cosplaying, using viewership actually makes sense if you want to compare one character’s popularity vs another.

I asked Ross to come up with a list of characters with high Youtube makeup viewership. Lets hope he will do it 🙂

3.4 Ebay’s new payment platform

There was some discussion in the chats on Ebay’s new payment platform. Currently, it is rolling out in phases but a full rollout might be happening by end of July.

Currently, if your sales crossed 20k and 200 items, you will be forced to use this new platform, if I read the discussion correctly.

If Ebay is your primary selling platform, time to familiarize yourself on how this new payment system might affect you.

4. Others

4.1 Moderns rising faster than older books?

There was an interesting comment made by Derek about modern books rising in value faster than older books. Some examples of older books include Iron Man #55, Amazing Spider-Man #194 and Fantastic Four #48.

These books seem to be stagnant or even declining this year, relative to the meteoric rise of moderns like Ultimate Fallout #4 and others

One possible reason I proposed was that these books might have reached their respective ceilings. This is something I feel a lot of comic collectors do not think about.

No matter how great is the book, there has got to be a ceiling somewhere. It cannot just rise and rise forever.

4.2 Pics of Amazing Fantasy #15

To end off the chat summary, we have a few members flexing their collecting muscles with their copies of Amazing Fantasy #15.

These amazing books were from Sean Weingarten, Smick and Robert Reilly. For some reasons, Smick deleted his pics before I could download them

Conclusion

As you can see, a lot is happening in our Comic book chats. I wish I have done this earlier to capture all the useful information and speculation tips that have been discussed throughout the months.

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