Analyzing the Potential of Hawkeye Vol 5 #1
With the official confirmation of Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop, I thought it will be relevant to look at another of Kate’s overlooked key, which is her first solo series.
I have already recommended Kate Bishop’s first appearance in 2015 and 2019 so I am not going to repeat myself. Instead, I think Kate’s first solo might yield more profit potential at this point in time.
What is Kate Bishop’s first solo?
Unlike other characters, Kate Bishop’s first solo is not that clean cut. Prior to the Hawkeye Vol 5, she was co-starring in Hawkeye Vol 4 along with Clint Barton, which is what the Hawkeye show will be based on. Although Clint was clearly the lead in Vol 4, will collectors consider this to be Kate’s first solo?
Personally, I feel Hawkeye Vol 5 is a stronger case as she leads in the entire series, with Clint showing up only in the last storyline. Even so, you never get the sense that this is about Clint instead of Kate. As a result, I am going to bet that the Vol 5 is what the market to be considered Kate’s first solo.
Benchmarking analysis
I used bench-marking to compare the pricing of Kate’s first solo against Kamala Khan, who is also receiving her own TV show.
(Editor’s note: I also did an analysis on Kamala Khan key comics here)
| Issues | Character | Appearance Ratio | Supply | NM Prices | 9.8 Prices (Census) |
| Regular | |||||
| Ms Marvel Vol 3, #1 | Kamala Khan | 341 | 50,286 | $75 | $300 (586) |
| Hawkeye Vol 5, #1 | Kate Bishop | 222 | 70,884 | $5 | $120 (73) |
| Variants | |||||
| Ms Marvel #1, Adams | 1: 50 | $200 | $300 (47) | ||
| Ms Marvel #1, Adams Sketch | 1:100 | $300 | $550 (100) | ||
| Hawkeye Vol #1 Aja | 1:25 | $70 | $200 (19) | ||
| Hawkeye Vol #1 Sauvage | 1:25 | $40 | $200 (15) |
Observation #1: regular edition
I separate the analysis between regular and variants as these are distinct market segments with different price points.
Hawkeye Vol 5, #1
Date of Publication: 2017
Sale number: 70,889
Key strengths of this book
1. First solo for Kate Bishop
2. First appearance of Ramone Watts (Alloy)
3. First appearance of Hawkeye Investigations.
For the regular editions, it seems there is quite a big gap between what Ms Marvel Vol 3, #1 is commanding vs Hawkeye Vol 5, #1. Specifically, for raw NM books, the difference is about 15X while for CGC 9.8s, it is about 3X.
Granted, Kamala Khan has a higher appearance ratio (which is my measure of popularity) as well as a having a lower print run for her solo. If we adjust for this, the difference will not be as big as what the preceding paragraph suggested. However, there is still going to be some handsome profits to be made.
In addition, Hawkeye Vol 5, #1 has some additional advantage over the Ms Marvel book.
- First appearance of Ramone Watts, who went on to become Alloy in West Coast Avengers Vol 3, #9
- First appearance of Hawkeye Investigations, which is sort of a Private Investigation team.
So, no matter how you look at it, the regular edition of Kate’s first solo seems undervalued.
Observation #2: variant edition
For the purpose of analysis, I am only looking at the most rare variants. In Ms Marvel Vol 3, #1’s case, it will be the 1:100 Adam sketch variant. However, since Hawkeye’s rarest variant is only 1:25, I also include the Adam colored 1:50 for a closer comparison.
Similar to the regular cover, there is still room for growth for Hawkeye #1 variant, in both raw and CGC 9.8. In terms of census growth, it pretty hard to tell now since Hawkeye #1 is not a heavily submitted book. Currently, both the Aja and Sauvage variants have only 25 total CGC submissions.
There is another Hawkeye variant which is the the Hip Hop variant. There is currently very little information on their print runs and/or incentive ratios. As such, it is difficult to tell if these are more scare than the 1:25. However, going by Ebay listings, there should be more hip hop variants relative to the incentive variants.
Hawkeye Vol 5, #1 Hip Hop Variant
Date of Publication: 2017
Sale number: No Information
Key strengths of this book
1. First solo for Kate Bishop
2. First appearance of Ramone Watts (Alloy)
3. First appearance of Hawkeye Investigations.
Personally, this is my favourite Kate Bishop variant but my taste doesn’t affect the market lol.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, Kate Bishop’s first solo issue seems undervalued, especially when you factor in other first appearances in this book. Relative to Ms Marvel #1, there is a pretty significant pricing gap which might be closed over time as Hawkeye heats up with Hailee Steinfeld taking up the role.
I agree, but, what made ms marvel 1 special was all the late printings with low supply numbers. If it wasnt for the 7th print, ms marvel 1 regular edition would of not caught as much heat as it did. People couldnt afford the 7th print which is why they started buying the 1st print.
As far as Hawkeye goes, the regular print does not have any later printings, it does not even have a 2nd print, and with the 1st print having a big print run, its never going to catch heat, no where close to ms marvel 1 that is.
As far as variants go, thats a whole different story, the variants will heat up no doubt.
Why couldn’t the catch fire story happen with variants instead of later printings?
People couldn’t afford variants and start buying 1st print?
Your comparing apples to oranges. Variants has nothing to do with Cover A, thats the problem in your Math. Hawkeye 1 has a 70k print run, that is a Massive Print Run. No way No how a 70k Print run book that is not a 1st appearance book is going to catch heat. Your talking about a issue 1 book…. with a 70k print run…. with no later printings…. Lol bro I promise you the book wont catch heat, and if it does, it wont be no where near the % of Ms Marvel 1, point being is Cover A is useless.
Ms Marvel cover A caught heat because 1) Cover A had later printings, when the later printings became out of reach people went after cover A. Later printings has nothing to do with Variants. 2) Ms Marvel 1 is a Way Bigger book then Hawkeye 1. You should know this and know the reasons why.
Your comparing a True Vol 1 Issue 1 of Ms Marvel to a “True”? Vol 1 of Hawkeye? Ms Marvel had barley made 1 Full appearance before Ms Marvel 1, your comparing that to Hawkeye? How many full appearances did Kate Bishop make before Hawkeye 1? This is the sound of Game Over
You are not getting the logic. People do go after regular A once the variants get out of reach. In fact, this has been a collecting norm. It is the later printings that are newer in the collecting scene.
Also, while I agree that Ms Marvel has the advantage of having less appearances, Hawkeye #1 also contains first appearance of a strong supporting character. That might give the book the edge it needs.
Anyway, you don’t have to get so heated and personal in your comments. If you disagree, so be it.
You should an article on the cast of characters for hawkeye worth investing in, similar to your article of ms marvel