Comic Investing Tip #12: How to Estimate CGC 9.8 Supply
One of the most important aspect of investing in CGC 9.8 comics is to avoid high supply books. However, it is difficult to estimate what the future of the supply number can be. A low census count is not good enough because it is usually due to the a lack of incentives to submit from low prices.
This article will propose an easy to use method for anyone to estimate a comic’s future CGC 9.8 supply.
The methodology of this approach is pretty straight forward
- Select books that are already high priced
- Analyse their current submission numbers as part of their supply
- Develop an average submission ratio for the whole market
- Multiple this ratio by the supply of the book as well as its 9.8 to total CGC ratio (Supply * Submission Ratio * 9.8 to Total Ratio)
The most important for the above exercise is step one. The books selected must have the following characteristic:
- heavily submitted
- have went through a few prices hikes
- are highly priced.
Below is the books select to derive the CGC submission to total supply ratio. I have separated the books into high and low print run to let you see that the ratio can differ a lot.
| Issue | Price | Supply | Total CGC copies | CGC to Supply | 9.8 to Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate Fallout #4 (Miles Morales) | USD 1,000 | 73,764 | 6,814 | 9% | 31% |
| Nyx #3 (X-23) | USD 950 | 40,040 | 4,922 | 12% | 40% |
| Edge of Spiderverse #2 (Spider Gwen) | USD 900 | 54,415 | 4,420 | 8% | 58% |
What is the average CGC to supply ratio?
Looking at the first 3 books will give you a sense that the average ratio can range from 8-12%. Using these ratio, you can then do an estimate of what is the eventual 9.8 supply is going to be like.
Let try this on the 3 books in the table below, using the submission ratio of 10%.
| Issue | Price | Supply | Total CGC copies | CGC to Supply | 9.8 to Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazing Spider-Man Vol 3, #4 (Silk) | USD 300 | 117,917 | 3,779 | 3% | 80% |
| Teen Titans Vol 6, #12 (Batman Who Laughs) | USD 700 | 56,000 | 1,960 | 3.5% | 31% |
| Young Avengers #1 (Young Avengers) | USD 400 | 87,991 | 1,442 | 1.6% | 61% |
The following are expected number of eventual 9.8 copies, following the proposed methodology.
- Amazing Spider-Man Vol 2, #4: 117,917 * 10% * 80% = 9,433 (3,036)
- Teen Titan Vol 6, #12: 56,000 * 10% * 31% = 1,736 (616)
- Young Avengers #1: 87,991 * 10% * 61% = 5,367 (874)
Comparing the above numbers with their current 9.8 copies (in brackets) on census, there is going to be a lot more copies being submitted.
The biggest increase will come from Amazing Spider-Man Vol 2, #4 due to its larger supply as well as a higher 9.8 to total cgc copies ratio.
How do you use this info for your investment?
Using this methodology, anyone can now estimate what will the eventual 9.8 copies and make their investment decisions accordingly.
If the eventual number is close to current numbers, then the probability of a large increase in 9.8 copies will be low. This mean current prices of these 9.8 will not be likely by sharp increase in 9.8 copies.
On the other hand, if the eventual number has a big gap with current numbers, expect 9.8 copies to increase quickly when prices increase. This is turn will bring prices down or keep them from increasing further.
Submission ratio for low print comic books
The above 8-12% submission ratio applies to most comics in general. However, does that apply really low print run books that are below 30 or even 25k?
Below are some low print run books that can inform us on the above point
| Issue | Price | Supply | Total CGC copies | CGC to Supply | 9.8 to Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batman Beyond #1 (Batman Beyond) | USD 1,500 | 27,920 | 653 | 2.3% | 37% |
| Captain Marvel Vol 7, #14 (Kamala Khan) | USD 550 | 19,320 | 442 | 4.3% | 53% |
| Adam Legend of Blue Marvel #1 (Blue Marvel) | USD 1,300 | 17,305 | 380 | 2.2% | 36% |
Although the results are not conclusive, it seems that low print run books have much lower submission ratio. Currently, the 3 books above only has 2.3-4.3%, which is about 20-40% of the 8-12% that we have calculated.
If this result holds, it could mean that many low print books such as Amazing Fantasy Vol 2, #15 are already near their eventual 9.8 copies.
For example, if we assume a more generous submission ratio of 5%, this means the eventual 9.8 copies of Amazing Fantasy Vol 2, #15 is: 13,957 * 5% * 31% = 216.
The current 9.8 copies for this book is 148 so we wouldn’t be seeing another 500 copies being added. This will help to preserve the value of Amadeus Cho’s first appearance book.
Conclusion
Having a clearer picture of the eventual supply of 9.8 copies can help us make the right investment. Most of the time, when a book hits a new high in 9.8, make sure that there will not be a flood of 9.8 copies in the coming months or the value will definitely declined.
